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Part One Introduction1

Chapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics3

1-1 Why Study Macroeconomics？3

CASE STUDY 1-1 Presidential Elections and the Economy5

1-2 How Economists Think6

The Use of Economic Models6

FYI Using Functions to Express Relationships Among Variables9

The Role of Microeconomics in Macroeconomics10

Eclectic Macroeconomics11

Prices：Flexible versus Sticky11

1-3 How This Book Proceeds12

Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics15

2-1 Measuring the Value of Economic Activity：Gross National Product16

Income，Expenditure，and the Circular Flow16

FYI Stocks and Flows18

Some Rules for Computing GNP19

The Treatment of Inventories19

Adding Apples and Oranges19

Intermediate Goods and Value-Added20

Housing Services and Other Imputations20

Real GNP versus Nominal GNP21

CASE STUDY 2-1 Real GNP in the United States22

The GNP Deflator23

Other Statistics in the National Income Accounts24

The Components of Expenditure24

CASE STUDY 2-2 GNP and Its Components25

Alternative Measures of Income26

CAS ESTUDY 2-3 The Seasonal Cycle and Seasonal Adjustment28

2-2 Measuring the Cost of Living：The Consumer Price Index29

The Price of a Basket of Goods29

The CPI versus the GNP Deflator30

CASESTUDY 2-4 The Inflation of 1978-198132

2-3 Measuring Joblessness：The Unemployment Rate33

CASESTUDY 2-5 Unemployment，GNP，and Okun’s Law35

2-4 Conclusion：From Economic Statistics to Economic Models37

Part Two The Economy in the Long Run41

Chapter 3 National Income：Its Production，Distribution，and Allocation42

3-1 The Production of Goods and Services44

The Factors of Production44

The Production Function45

The Fixed Supply of Goods and Services45

3-2 Distributing National Income to the Factors of Production46

Factor Prices46

The Problem Facing the Competitive Firm47

The Firm’s Demand for Factors48

The Marginal Product of Labor48

From the Marginal Product of Labor to Labor Demand49

The Marginal Product of Capital and Capital Demand51

The Division of National Income51

CASESTUDY 3-1 The Black Death and Factor Prices53

CASESTUDY 3-2 The Senator，the Mathematician，and the Constancy of Factor Shares53

3-3 The Demand for Goods and Services56

Consumption56

CASESTUDY 3-3 The Consumption Function in U.S.Data58

Investment58

FYI What Is Investment？61

Government Purchases61

3-4 Equilibrium and the Interest Rate62

Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and Services：The Supply and Demand for the Economy’s Output63

Equilibrium in the Financial Markets：The Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds64

Changes in Saving：The Effects of Fiscal Policy65

An Increase in Government Purchases66

CASESTUDY 3-4 Wars and Interest Rates in the United Kingdom，1730-192067

A Decrease in Taxes68

CASESTUDY 3-5 Fiscal Policy in the 1980s69

Changes in Investment Demand69

FYI The Identification Problem72

3-5 Conclusion74

Chapter 4 Economic Growth77

4-1 The Accumulation of Capital79

The Supply and Demand for Goods79

The Supply of Goods and the Production Function79

The Demand for Goods and the Consumption Function80

The Steady-State Level of Capital81

Approaching the Steady State84

Approaching the Steady State：A Numerical Example84

CASESTUDY 4-1 Japanese and German Postwar Economic Growth86

Changes in the Saving Rate87

CASESTUDY 4-2 Saving in Rich and Poor Countries88

4-2 The Golden Rule Level of Capital89

Comparing Steady States89

Comparing Steady States：A Numerical Example91

The Transition to the Golden Rule Steady State93

Starting With More Capital Than in the Golden Rule93

Starting With Less Capital Than in the Golden Rule94

4-3 Population Growth96

The Steady State With Population Growth96

The Effects of Population Growth98

CASESTUDY 4-3 Population Growth in Rich and Poor Countries99

4-4 Technological Progress100

The Efficiency of Labor100

The Steady State With Technological Progress100

The Effects of Technological Progress101

CASESTUDY 4-4 Steady-State Growth in the United States102

4-5 Saving，Growth，and Economic Policy103

Evaluating the Rate of Saving103

Changing the Rate of Saving104

CASESTUDY 4-5 Social Security and Saving105

Encouraging Technological Progress105

CASESTUDY 4-6 The Worldwide Slowdown in Economic Growth106

4-6 Conclusion：Beyond the Solow Model107

Appendix：Accounting for the Sources of Economic Growth112

Increases in the Factors of Production112

Increases in Capital112

Increases in Labor113

Increases in Capital and Labor113

Technological Progress114

The Sources of Growth in the United States116

Chapter 5 Unemployment118

5-1 Job Loss，Job Finding，and the Natural Rate of Unemployment119

5-2 Job Search and Frictional Unemployment121

Public Policy and Frictional Unemployment122

CASESTUDY 5-1 Interwar British Unemployment123

CASESTUDY 5-2 Unemployment Insurance and the Rate of Job Finding124

5-3 Real-Wage Rigidity and Wait Unemployment126

Minimum-Wage Laws127

CASESTUDY 5-3 The Minimum Wage and the Working Poor128

Unions and Collective Bargaining128

CASESTUDY 5-4 Unionization and Unemployment in the United States and Canada129

Efficiency Wages130

CASESTUDY 5-5 Henry Ford’s $5 Workday131

5-4 Patterns of Unemployment132

The Duration of Unemployment132

Variation in the Unemployment Rate Across Demographic Groups133

The Upward Trend in Unemployment134

Transitions Into and Out of the Labor Force136

5-5 Conclusion137

Chapter 6 Inflation140

6-1 What Is Money？141

The Functions of Money141

The Types of Money142

CASE STUDY 6-1 Money in a POW Camp143

How Fiat Money Evolves144

CASE STUDY 6-2 Money on the Island of Yap144

How the Quantity of Money Is Controlled145

How the Quantity of Money Is Measured146

6-2 The Quantity Theory of Money147

Transactions and the Quantity Equation147

From Transactions to Income148

The Money Demand Function and the Quantity Equation149

The Assumption of Constant Velocity150

Money，Prices，and Inflation150

FYI Products and Percentage Changes151

CASESTUDY 6-3 A Century of Money Growth and Inflation152

6-3 Seigniorage：The Revenue From Printing Money152

CASESTUDY 6-4 Paying for the American Revolution154

6-4 Inflation and Interest Rates154

Two Interest Rates：Real and Nominal155

The Fisher Effect155

CASESTUDY 6-5 Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates156

Two Real Interest Rates：Ex Ante and Ex Post157

CASESTUDY 6-6 Nominal Interest Rates in the Nineteenth Century157

6-5 The Nominal Interest Rate and the Demand for Money158

The Cost of Holding Money158

Future Money and Current Prices159

How to Stop a Hyperinflation160

CASESTUDY 6-7 Hyperinflation in Interwar Germany162

6-6 The Social Costs of Inflation164

Expected Inflation164

CASESTUDY 6-8 Life During the Bolivian Hyperinflation166

Unexpected Inflation166

CASESTUDY 6-9 The Free Silver Movement，the Election of 1896，and the Wizard of Oz168

The Level and Variability of Inflation169

6-7 Conclusion：The Classical Dichotomy169

Appendix：The Impact of Current and Future Money on the Price Level173

Chapter 7 The Open Economy176

7-1 National Income Accounting in an Open Economy178

The Role of Net Exports178

GNP versus GDP180

The Capital Account and the Current Account181

7-2 The International Flows of Capital and Goods183

A Model of the Small Open Economy183

How Policies Influence the Capital Account and the Current Account185

Fiscal Policy at Home185

CASESTUDY 7-1 The Twin Deficits of the 1980s186

Fiscal Policy Abroad188

Shifts in Investment Demand188

Evaluating Economic Policy189

7-3 Exchange Rates190

Nominal and Real Exchange Rates190

The Nominal Exchange Rate190

FYI How Newspapers Report the Exchange Rate191

The Real Exchange Rate192

The Real Exchange Rate and Net Exports193

CASESTUDY 7-2 How Business Firms Respond to the Exchange Rate194

The Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate194

How Policies Influence the Real Exchange Rate196

Fiscal Policy at Home196

Fiscal Policy Abroad196

Shifts in Investment Demand197

The Effects of Trade Policies198

The Determinants of the Nominal Exchange Rate199

CASESTUDY 7-3 Inflation and Nominal Exchange Rates200

The Special Case of Purchasing-Power Parity201

CASESTUDY 7-4 The Big Mac Around the World203

7-4 Conclusion：The United States as a Large Open Economy204

Appendix：A Model of the Large Open Economy208

The Flow of Capital From Abroad208

The Elements of the Model209

The Effects of Economic Policies211

Part Three The Economy in the Short Run213

Chapter 8 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations214

8-1 How the Short Run and Long Run Differ215

CASESTUDY 8-1 The Puzzle of Sticky Magazine Prices217

8-2 Aggregate Demand217

The Quantity Equation as Aggregate Demand218

Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Slopes Downward218

Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve219

8-3 Aggregate Supply220

The Long Run：The Vertical Aggregate Supply Curve221

The Short Run：The Horizontal Aggregate Supply Curve222

From the Short Run to the Long Run224

CASESTUDY 8-2 Gold，Greenbacks，and the Contraction of the 1870s226

8-4 Stabilization Policy226

Shocks to Aggregate Demand227

CASESTUDY 8-3 Velocity and the 1982 Recession228

Shocks to Aggregate Supply229

CASESTUDY 8-4 How OPEC Helped Cause Stagflation in the 1970s and Euphoria in the 1980s231

8-5 Conclusion233

Chapter 9 Aggregate Demand Ⅰ235

9-1 The Goods Market and the IS Curve237

The Keynesian Cross237

Planned Expenditure237

The Economy in Equilibrium238

Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier：Government Purchases240

Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier：Taxes243

CASESTUDY 9-1 Kennedy，Keynes，and the 1964 Tax Cut244

The Interest Rate，Investment，and the IS Curve244

How Fiscal Policy Shifts the IS Curve246

A Loanable-Funds Interpretation of the IS Curve247

The Simple Algebra of the IS Curve248

9-2 The Money Market and the LM Curve250

The Theory of Liquidity Preference250

CASESTUDY 9-2 Paul Volcker，Tight Money，and Rising Interest Rates254

Income，Money Demand，and the LM Curve254

How Monetary Policy Shifts the LM Curve255

A Quantity-Equation Interpretation of the LM Curve257

The Simple Algebra of the LM Curve258

9-3 Conclusion：The Short-Run Equilibrium259

Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand Ⅱ263

10-1 Explaining Fluctuations With the IS-LM Model264

Changes in Fiscal Policy264

Changes in Monetary Policy265

The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy266

CASESTUDY 10-1 Policy Analysis With Macroeconometric Models268

Shocks in the IS-LM Model269

10-2 IS-LM as a Theory of Aggregate Demand270

From the IS-LM Model to the Aggregate Demand Curve270

The Simple Algebra of the Aggregate Demand Curve273

CASESTUDY 10-2 The Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy274

The IS-LM Model in the Short Run and Long Run275

10-3 The Great Depression277

The Spending Hypothesis：Shocks to the IS Curve278

The Money Hypothesis：A Shock to the LM Curve280

The Money Hypothesis Again：The Effects of Falling Prices280

The Stabilizing Influences of Deflation281

The Destabilizing Influences of Deflation281

Could the Depression Happen Again？283

10-4 Conclusion283

Chapter 11 Aggregate Supply287

11-1 Four Models of Aggregate Supply288

The Sticky-Wage Model288

The Worker-Misperception Model291

CASE STUDY 11-1 The Cyclical Behavior of the Real Wage294

The Imperfect-Information Model295

The Sticky-Price Model296

CASESTUDY 11-2 International Differences in the Aggregate Supply Curve299

Summary and Implications300

11-2 Inflation，Unemployment，and the Phillips Curve302

From Aggregate Supply to Phillips Curve303

FYI The History of the Phillips Curve304

Expectations and Inflation Inertia305

The Two Causes of Rising and Falling Inflation305

CASESTUDY 11-3 Inflation and Unemployment in the United States306

The Short-Run Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment307

Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio308

Rational Expectations and Painless Disinflation309

CASESTUDY 11-4 The Cost of Paul Volcker’s Disinflation311

11-3 Recent Developments：New Keynesian Economics312

Small Menu Costs and Aggregate Demand Externalities313

The Staggering of Wages and Prices314

Recessions as Coordination Failure315

CASESTUDY 11-5 Experimental Evidence on Coordination Games316

Hysteresis and the Challenge to the Natural-Rate Hypothesis317

CASESTUDY 11-6 Unemployment in the United Kingdom in the 1980s318

11-4 Conclusion319

Chapter 12 The Macroeconomic Policy Debate322

12-1 Should Policy Be Active or Passive？323

Lags in the Implementation and Effects of Policies324

CASESTUDY 12-1 Profit Sharing as an Automatic Stabilizer325

The Difficult Job of Economic Forecasting326

CASESTUDY 12-2 Two Episodes in Economic Forecasting326

Ignorance，Expectations，and the Lucas Critique328

The Historical Record329

CASESTUDY 12-3 Is the Stabilization of the Economy a Figment of the Data？329

12-2 Should Policy Be Conducted by Rule or by Discretion？330

Distrust of Policymakers and the Political Process331

CASESTUDY 12-4 The Economy Under Republican and Democratic Presidents332

The Time Inconsistency of Discretionary Policy333

CASESTUDY 12-5 Alexander Hamilton versus Time Inconsistency335

Rules for Monetary Policy336

Rules for Fiscal Policy337

CASESTUDY 12-6 The Debt-GNP Ratio Over Two Hundred Years338

12-3 Conclusion：Making Policy in an Uncertain World339

Appendix：Time Inconsistency and the Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment342

Chapter 13 The Open Economy in the Short Run345

13-1 The Mundell-Fleming Model346

Components of the Model346

The Model on a Y-r Graph347

The Model on a Y-e Graph349

13-2 The Small Open Economy Under Floating Exchange Rates352

Fiscal Policy352

Monetary Policy353

CASESTUDY 13-1 The Rise in the Dollar，1979-1982354

Trade Policy354

13-3 The Small Open Economy Under Fixed Exchange Rates356

How a Fixed Exchange-Rate System Works356

CASESTUDY 13-2 The International Gold Standard358

Fiscal Policy359

Monetary Policy359

Trade Policy361

Summary of the Mundell-Fleming Model362

13-4 Should Exchange Rates Be Floating or Fixed？362

CASESTUDY 13-3 The European Monetary System364

13-5 A Concluding Reminder364

Appendix：A Short-Run Model of the Large Open Economy368

Fiscal Policy370

Monetary Policy370

A Rule of Thumb373

Chapter 14 The Theory of Real Business Cycles374

14-1 A Review of the Economy Under Flexible Prices375

14-2 A Real-Business-Cycle Model377

Intertemporal Substitution and Labor Supply377

Real Aggregate Supply and Real Aggregate Demand378

Changes in Fiscal Policy379

Shocks to Technology380

14-3 The Debate Over Real-Business-Cycle Theory382

The Importance of Technology Shocks382

CASESTUDY 14-1 The Solow Residual and the Business Cycle383

The Interpretation of Unemployment384

CASESTUDY 14-2 Looking for Intertemporal Substitution385

The Neutrality of Money386

The Flexibility of Wages and Prices386

FYI What Is New Classical Economics？387

14-4 Conclusion388

Part Four More on the Microeconomics Behind Macroeconomics391

Chapter 15 Consumption392

15-1 John Maynard Keynes and the Consumption Function393

Keynes’s Conjectures393

The Early Empirical Successes395

Secular Stagnation，Simon Kuznets，and the Consumption Puzzle395

15-2 Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice397

The Intertemporal Budget Constraint397

Consumer Preferences400

Optimization401

How Changes in Income Affect Consumption402

How Changes in the Real Interest Rate Affect Consumption403

CASESTUDY 15-1 Consumption and the Real Interest Rate404

Constraints on Borrowing405

CASESTUDY 15-2 The High Japanese Saving Rate408

15-3 Franco Modigliani and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis409

The Hypothesis409

Implications410

CASESTUDY 15-3 The Consumption and Saving of the Elderly412

CASESTUDY 15-4 Saving and the Fear of Nuclear War412

15-4 Milton Friedman and the Permanent-Income Hypothesis414

The Hypothesis414

Implications415

CASESTUDY 15-5 The 1964 Tax Cut and the 1968 Tax Surcharge416

Rational Expectations and Consumption417

CASESTUDY 15-6 Do Consumers Anticipate Future Income？418

15-5 Conclusion419

Chapter 16 Two Views of Government Debt423

16-1 The Traditional View of Government Debt424

16-2 The Ricardian View of Government Debt426

The Basic Logic of Ricardian Equivalence426

The Government Budget Constraint427

16-3 Consumers and Future Taxes429

Myopia430

Borrowing Constraints430

Future Generations432

CASESTUDY 16-1 Why Do Parents Leave Bequests？433

16-4 Conclusion：Making a Choice433

Appendix：Is the Government Budget Deficit Correctly Measured？436

Measurement Problem No.1：Inflation436

Measurement Problem No.2：Capital Assets437

Measurement Problem No.3：Uncounted Liabilities438

Whither the Budget Deficit？439

Chapter 17 Investment440

17-1 Business Fixed Investment441

The Rental Price of Capital442

The Cost of Capital443

The Determinants of Investment445

Taxes and Investment448

CASESTUDY 17-1 The Swedish Investment Funds System449

The Stock Market and Tobin’s q450

Financing Constraints451

17-2 Residential Investment452

The Stock Equilibrium and the Flow Supply452

Changes in Housing Demand453

FYI What Price House Can You Afford？454

CASESTUDY 17-2 Taxes，Babies，and the Housing Boom of the 1970s455

17-3 Inventory Investment456

Reasons for Holding Inventories456

CASESTUDY 17-3 Seasonal Fluctuations and Production Smoothing457

The Accelerator Model of Inventories458

CASESTUDY 17-4 The Evidence for the Accelerator Model458

Inventories and the Real Interest Rate459

17-4 Conclusion460

Chapter 18 Money Supply and Money Demand463

18-1 Money Supply463

100-Percent-Reserve Banking464

Fractional-Reserve Banking465

A Model of the Money Supply467

The Three Instruments of Monetary Policy469

CASESTUDY 18-1 Bank Failures and the Money Supply in the 1930s470

18-2 Money Demand472

Portfolio Theories of Money Demand472

CASESTUDY 18-2 Currency and the Underground Economy474

Transactions Theories of Money Demand474

The Baumol-Tobin Model of Cash Management474

CASESTUDY 18-3 Empirical Studies of Money Demand478

18-3 Conclusion：Microeconomic Models for Macroeconomics479

Epilogue What We Know，What We Don’t482

The Four Most Important Lessons of Macroeconomics482

Lesson No.1：In the long run，a country’s capacity to produce goods and services determines the standard of living of its citizens483

Lesson No.2：In the short run，aggregate demand influences the amount of goods and services that a country produces483

Lesson No.3：In the long run，the rate of money growth determines the rate of inflation，but it does not affect the rate of unemployment483

Lesson No.4：In the short run，policymakers who control monetary and fiscal policy face a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment484

The Four Most Important Unresolved Questions of Macroeconomics485

Question No.1：How should policymakers try to raise the economy’s natural rate of output？485

Question No.2：Should policymakers try to stabilize the economy？486

Question No.3：How costly is inflation，and how costly is reducing inflation？486

Question No.4：What are the consequences of government budget deficits？487

Glossary489

Index499