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PART Ⅰ Introduction to Decision Support Systems3

1 INTRODUCTION TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS3

1.1 How Decision Support Systems Evolved4

1.2 What Is a DSS？10

1.3 Why Decision Support Systems Matter13

1.4 DSS Benefits17

1.5 Why Study DSS？23

1.6 The Plan of This Book23

Summary27

Key Terms27

Review Questions28

Exercises28

References30

Fort Lowell Trading Company31

2 HUMAN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES36

2.1 What Is a Decision？37

2.2 The Decision Process39

2.2.1 The Intelligence Phase39

2.2.2 The Design Phase40

2.2.3 The Choice Phase40

2.3 Types of Decisions42

2.4 How Businesspeople Make Decisions47

2.4.1 The Rational Manager48

2.4.2 Subjective Utility51

2.4.3 Systematic Decision Making54

2.4.4 Satisficing57

2.4.5 Organizational and Political Decision Making57

2.5 The Impact of Psychological Type on Decision Making59

2.6 The Impact of Culture on Decision Making64

2.7 The Kepner-Tregoe Decision-Making Method65

2.7.1 State the Purpose of the Decision66

2.7.2 Establish Objectives67

2.7.3 Classify According to Importance67

2.7.4 Generate Alternatives68

2.7.5 Evaluate Alternatives Against Objectives69

2.7.6 Tentatively，Choose the Best Alternative70

2.7.7 Assess Adverse Consequences70

2.7.8 Make a Final Choice71

Summary73

Key Terms73

Review Questions74

Exercises75

References77

Fort Lowell Trading Company79

Exercises82

3 SYSTEMS，INFORMATION QUALITY，AND MODELS83

3.1 About Systems84

3.2 Information Systems88

3.3 Data Flow Diagrams90

3.4 DSS as Information Systems92

3.5 Information and Information Quality94

3.5.1 Information Versus Data94

3.5.2 Information Quality97

3.5.3 Information Quality Factors98

3.6 Models119

Summary120

Key Terms122

Review Questions123

Exercises123

References126

Fort Lowell Trading Company127

Exercises128

4 TYPES OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS129

4.1 The DSS Hierarchy130

4.1.1 Overview of the DSS Hierarchy130

4.1.2 The Seven DSS Types131

4.1.3 Applying the DSS Types to Airline Yield Management134

4.2 Generalizing the DSS Categories143

4.3 Matching DSS to the Decision Type143

4.4 Individual and Group DSS144

4.5 Matching Benefits to the DSS User Community145

4.6 Matching DSS to the Decision Maker’s Psychological Type146

4.6.1 Introversion/Extraversion147

4.6.2 Sensing/Intuition147

4.6.3 Thinking/Feeling148

4.6.4 Judgment/Perception148

4.6.5 Combinations of Preferences148

4.7 Usage Modes149

4.8 Institutional Versus Ad Hoc DSS151

Summary152

Key Terms153

Review Questions154

Exercises154

References156

Fort Lowell Trading Company156

Exercises159

PART Ⅱ Building and Implementing Decision Support Systems163

5 DSS ARCHITECTURE，HARDWARE，AND OPERATING SYSTEM PLATFORMS163

5.1 Defining the DSS Architecture164

5.2 The Major Options168

5.3 DSS on the Central Corporate System169

5.4 DSS and Client/Server Computing171

5.5 The Internet and Client/Server Computing in DSS177

5.6 DSS Using Shared Data on a Separate System179

5.7 DSS on a Stand-Alone System182

5.8 Open Systems and DSS184

5.9 Choosing a DSS Hardware Environment189

Summary190

Key Terms190

Review Questions191

Exercises192

References193

Fort Lowell Trading Company193

Exercises196

6 DSS SOFTWARE TOOLS197

6.1 DSS Software Categories198

6.2 Standard Packages201

6.3 Specialized Tools and Generators201

6.3.1 Database Management Systems202

6.3.2 Information Retrieval Packages211

6.3.3 Specialized Modeling Languages213

6.3.4 Statistical Data Analysis Packages218

6.3.5 Forecasting Packages224

6.3.6 Graphing Packages228

6.4 Programming Languages for DSS228

6.4.1 Third-Generation Programming Languages229

6.4.2 Fourth-Generation Programming Languages230

6.5 DSS User Interfaces235

6.5.1 Factors to Consider in User Interface Design236

6.5.2 User Interface Styles240

6.5.3 Hypertext/Hypermedia245

Summary248

Key Terms250

Review Questions252

Exercises252

References254

Fort Lowell Trading Company255

Exercises256

7 BUILDING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS258

7.1 The DSS Development Process259

7.1.1 The SDLC Approach260

7.1.2 Prototyping261

7.1.3 End-User Development264

7.2 DSS Development Project Participants266

7.3 The Implementation Stage268

7.4 System Conversion271

7.5 Overcoming Resistance to Change273

7.5.1 Unfreezing275

7.5.2 Moving276

7.5.3 Refreezing277

7.6 DSS Implementation Issues278

7.6.1 Technical DSS Implementation Issues279

7.6.2 User-Related DSS Implementation Issues280

7.7 Using the Lists of Issues284

7.8 Ethical Issues in DSS Implementation285

Summary290

Key Terms291

Review Questions292

Exercises292

References294

Fort Lowell Trading Company295

Exercises296

8 MODELS IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS297

8.1 Types of Models298

8.1.1 Model Types299

8.1.2 Model Types Used in DSS300

8.1.3 Simplification in Models307

8.2 Discrete-Event Simulation Models309

8.2.1 The Concept of Discrete-Event Simulation309

8.2.2 A Discrete-Event Simulation Example311

8.2.3 Designing a Discrete-Event Simulation Model315

8.2.4 Another Simulation Example320

8.2.5 Complete Simulation Studies323

8.3 Random Numbers，Pseudo-random Numbers，and Statistical Distributions325

8.4 Static Simulation Models329

Summary334

Key Terms335

Review Questions336

Exercises336

References341

Fort Lowell Trading Company342

Exercises344

9 MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND OPTIMIZATION346

9.1 Queuing Models347

9.1.1 Queuing Theory Concepts348

9.1.2 A Queuing Theory Example348

9.1.3 Generalizing the Solution351

9.1.4 Arrival and Departure Time Distributions352

9.1.5 Queuing Theoryon a Computer354

9.2 Markov Process Models355

9.2.1 The Markov Process Model Concept355

9.2.2 Computer Calulations for Markov Processes357

9.3 Simulation，Queuing Theory，and Markov Processes Compared357

9.4 Optimization358

9.4.1 Complete Enumeration358

9.4.2 Random Search360

9.4.3 The Calculus Approach361

9.4.4 Linear Programming（LP）363

9.4.5 Numerical Methods368

Summary372

Key Terms374

Review Questions375

Exercises375

References378

Fort Lowell Trading Company379

Exercises383

10 GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS384

10.1 What Are Group DSS？385

10.2 Why Group DSS Now？386

10.2.1 Organizational Reasons for GDSS Growth386

10.2.2 Technical Reasons for Group DSS Growth387

10.2.3 Putting the Factors Together388

10.3 Group Versus Individual Activities388

10.4 Media Richness and Task Types390

10.4.1 Richness390

10.4.2 Task391

10.4.3 Task and Media Fit392

10.5 Types of Group DSS393

10.6 Groupware396

10.7 Group DSS in Use Today399

10.7.1 Electronic Meeting Systems399

10.7.2 Work Flow Systems403

10.8 Groupware Products406

10.8.1 Collaborative Authoring：DOLPHIN and MERMAID406

10.8.2 Lotus Notes408

10.8.3 InConcert Work Flow412

Summary414

Key Terms415

Review Questions416

Exercises417

References419

Fort Lowell Trading Company420

Exercises423

11 EXPERT SYSTEMS424

11.1 Artificial Intelligence425

11.2 Expert Systems：The Basic Idea427

11.3 Confidence Factors430

11.4 Fuzzy Logic432

11.5 Expert System Development Tools434

11.5.1 Shells434

11.5.2 Languages440

11.6 Choosing a Good Expert System Application442

11.7 Finding the Expert（s）447

11.8 Expert Systems and DSS449

11.9 Pros and Cons of Expert Systems451

Summary453

Key Terms454

Review Questions455

Exercises455

References457

Fort Lowell Trading Company458

Exercises459

PART Ⅲ Data Warehousing465

12 DATA WAREHOUSING AND EXECUTIVE INFORMATION SYSTEM FUNDAMENTALS465

12.1 What Is a Data Warehouse？466

12.2 Who Uses Data Warehouses？470

12.3 Why Data Warehouses Now？471

12.4 Data Warehouse Concepts472

12.5 Executive Information Systems476

Summary484

Key Terms485

Review Questions486

Exercises486

References488

Fort Lowell Trading Company489

Exercises490

13 THE DATA WAREHOUSE DATABASE491

13.1 Content of the Data Warehouse Database492

13.2 Database Structures494

13.2.1 Organizing a Relational Data Warehouse495

13.2.2 Multidimensional Database Structures498

13.2.3 Choosing a Structure501

13.3 Getting Data Into the Data Warehouse503

13.3.1 Extraction503

13.3.2 Transformation504

13.3.3 Cleansing507

13.3.4 Loading510

13.3.5 Summarization511

13.4 Metadata514

13.4.1 Human Metadata514

13.4.2 Computer-based Metadata for People to Use516

13.4.3 Computer-based Metadata for the Computer to Use516

Summary518

Key Terms519

Review Questions520

Exercises520

References521

Fort Lowell Trading Company522

Exercises523

14 ANALYZING THE CONTENTS OF THE DATA ？AREHOUSE524

14.1 Active Analysis：User Queries525

14.1.1 OLAP Example531

14.1.2 OLAP Software Architecture532

14.1.3 Web-based OLAP537

14.1.4 General OLAP Product Characteristics537

14.2 Automated Analysis：Data Mining542

14.2.1 Creating a Decision Tree545

14.2.2 Correlation and Other Statistical Analyses547

14.2.3 Neural Networks548

14.2.4 Nearest Neighbor Approaches551

14.2.5 Putting the Results to Use552

Summary553

Key Terms554

Review Questions554

Exercises555

References556

Fort Lowell Trading Company556

Exercises561

15 CONSTRUCTING A DATA WAREHOUSE SYSTEM562

15.1 Stages of the Project563

15.2 The Planning Stage567

15.2.1 Justifying the Data Warehouse567

15.2.2 Obtaining User Buy-in570

15.2.3 Overcoming Resistance to the Data Warehouse571

15.2.4 Developing a Project Plan573

15.3 Data Warehouse Design Approaches576

15.4 The Architecture Stage577

15.4.1 The Data Warehouse Database577

15.4.2 The Analysis Architecture578

15.4.3 Data Warehouse Hardware579

15.5 Hints for Data Warehousing Project Success582

Summary586

Key Terms588

Review Questions588

Exercises589

References591

Fort Lowell Trading Company591

Exercises593

PART Ⅳ Summary597

16 PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER：SYSTEMS INTEGRATION AND THE FUTURE OF DSS597

16.1 Combining the Pieces598

16.2 What Is Systems Integration？601

16.3 A Systems Integration Example602

16.4 Types of Integrated Systems603

16.4.1 Single System VisibilityVersus Multiple System Visibilities604

16.4.2 One Hardware Platform Versus Multiple Hardware Platforms605

16.4.3 One Location Versus Multiple Locations606

16.5 Trends in Systems Integration608

16.6 The Future of DSS611

16.7 In Conclusion613

Summary613

Key Terms614

Review Questions614

Exercises615

References615

Fort Lowell Trading Company616

Appendix：Cases619

Case 1 Options Pricing with Black-Scholes620

Case 2 Truck Brake Balancing626

Case 3 Enterprisewide GIS：Bringing New Dimensions to Decision Making629

Case 4 Fort Lowell Trading Company：Developing the Finance DSS633

Case 5 A Whole New Ball Game（Sort of）634

Case 6 MasterCard：Mining the Possibilities636

Case 7 Close Call Corp.：Anatomy of a Failure641

Case 8 Making Waves at Helene Curtis646

Case 9 HFS：Mega-Warehouse as Marketing Tool650

Index655