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PART Ⅰ　THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING 　1

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE2

1.1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making2

1.2 Trends Affecting Decision Making Today5

1.3 Key Characteristics of Management Science for Decision Making6

1.4 The Use of Models for Making Decisions7

1.5 The Use of Software in Decision Making17

1.6 Applications of Management Science in Business18

References22

CHAPTER 2 AVOIDING BAD DECISIONS:The Methodology of Decision Making24

2.1 Introduction24

2.2 Decision Making Traps25

2.3 Decision Making Tips27

2.4 The Rational Methodology for Decision Making30

2.5 Identification of the Problem31

2.6 Analysis of the System33

2.7 Formulation of the Objectives35

2.8 Initial System Design37

2.9 Detailed System Design39

2.10 Solution Implementation and Monitoring40

References43

PART Ⅱ　MODELS IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING45

CHAPTER 3 LINEAR PROGR A MMING47

3.1 Introduction47

3.2 Characteristics of LP Problems48

3.3 A Maximization Problem50

3.4 A Trial-and-Error Approach in Solving LP Problems51

3.5 Graphical Solution of a LP Problem52

3.6 A Minimization Problem55

3.7 General Formulation and Assumptions of LP Models56

3.8 Solving LP Problems58

Problems59

References61

CHAPTER 4 USING SOLVER TO SOLVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS63

4.1 Introduction63

4.2 Introducing the Model in Excel64

4.3 Solving the Problem66

4.4 Understanding and Analyzing the Solution-SOLVER Repots71

4.5 Solving Integer Programming Problems with SOLVER75

4.6 Solving Non-Linear Programming Problems with SOLVER75

4.7 Conclusions77

Problems77

References78

CHAPTER 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING79

5.1 Introduction79

5.2 An Example80

5.3 Dual Prices in LP82

5.4 Reduced Costs in LP83

5.5 Changes in the Objective Function's Coefficients84

5.6 Changes in the Right Hand Sides(RHS)of the Constraints86

5.7 Evaluation of a New Activity88

5.8 Conclusions88

Problems89

References99

CHAPTER 6 INTEGER PROGRAMMING100

6.1 Introduction100

6.2 Formulating IP Problems with Binary Variables101

6.3 An Investment Example103

6.4 Formulating IP Problems with Fixed Costs and/or Discounts104

6.5 Solving IP Problems108

6.6 Heuristic Methods to Solve IP Problems109

6.7 Conclusions112

Problems112

References115

CHAPTER 7 MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING116

7.1 Introduction116

7.2 Empirical Methods117

7.3 Goal Programming119

7.4 The Analytical Hierarchy Process124

7.5 Using Expert Choice to Solve Multicriteria Problems130

Problems135

References138

CHAPTER 8 STATISTICAL METHODS IN DECISION MAKING139

8.1 Introduction to Forecasting139

8.2 Key Concepts about Forecasting141

8.3 The Moving Averages Forecasting Method144

8.4 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method148

8.5 Other Forecasting Methods150

8.6 Linear Regression152

8.7 Multiple Regression157

8.8 Discriminant Analysis161

8.9 Using SPSS for Statistical Analysis164

Problems167

References172

CHAPTER 9 DECISION ANALYSIS173

9.1 Introduction173

9.2 Key Concepts about Decision Analysis174

9.3 Criteria for Making Decisions under Uncertainty175

9.4 The Expected Value of Perfect Information178

9.5 Introduction to Decision Trees179

9.6 Calculating the Risk Profile a Strategy184

9.7 Sensitivity Analysis185

9.8 Using Precision Tree to Solve Decision Analysis Problems186

Problems190

References192

CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION193

10.1 Introduction193

10.2 Key Characteristics of Simulation196

10.3 Implementation of Simulation under Conditions of Uncertainty197

10.4 Simulation of Queuing Systems200

10.5 Simulation of an Inventory System202

10.6 Analysis of Simulation Results205

10.7 Using Simulation for Risk Management207

10.8 Using Simulation for Business Process Reengineering213

Problems222

References225

PART Ⅲ　IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN PRACTICE227

CHAPTER 11 GETTING TO KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER228

11.1 Introduction228

11.2 Determining Customer Satisfaction229

11.3 Designing New Products233

11.4 Sales-Advertising Response Analysis236

11.5 Forecasting Sales of New Products240

11.6 Identifying Areas of Improvement243

11.7 Studying Product Positioning246

11.8 Identifying Market Segments251

11.9 Identifying Prospect Customers257

Problems260

References264

CHAPTER 12 MARKETING AND SALES MANAGEMENT265

12.1 Introduction265

12.2 A Product Selection Problem267

12.3 Design of Sales Network269

12.4 Selection of Communication Media271

12.5 Selection of Location274

12.6 Design of New Product Marketing Strategy278

12.7 Design of Promotion Strategy281

12.8 Sales Strategy284

12.9 Evaluation of Customer Value for CRM Implementation287

Problems292

References295

CHAPTER 13 PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT296

13.1 Introduction296

13.2 Production Planning—Selection of Production Mix297

13.3 Capacity Planning300

13.4 Outsourcing Management303

13.5 Planning Production Personnel304

13.6 Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty307

13.7 Production and Sales Planning under Discounting310

13.8 Selection of Production Technology313

13.9 Sequencing and Scheduling Production Problems318

Problems320

References322

CHAPTER 14 NETWORKS AND TRANSPORT PROBLEMS323

14.1 Introduction323

14.2 The Transportation Problem324

14.3 Designing the Shortest Path328

14.4 Managing Network Flow Problems330

14.5 Designing the Minimum Spanning Tree332

14.6 Planning Route Schedules with Multiple Vehicles334

14.7 Scheduling an Airline's Flights338

14.8 Project Management342

Problems345

References347

CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS A ND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT348

15.1 Introduction348

15.2 Designing the Supply Chain349

15.3 Evaluating a Company Acquisition352

15.4 Planning Product Distribution355

15.5 Planning Distribution of Hazardous Materials361

15.6 Selection of Transportation Media363

15.7 Design and Introduction of New Product368

Problems373

References376

CHAPTER 16 MANAGING INVESTMENTS377

16.1 Introduction377

16.2 A Simple Investment Selection Problem378

16.3 Selecting a Multi-Period Investment Portfolio380

16.4 Investing in Real Estate383

16.5 Multi-Period Investment Planning388

16.6 Asset and Liability Management in a Bank391

16.7 Deciding on Production and Capital Structure for a Family Business395

16.8 Developing Effective ExportPlanning398

16.9 Developing a Customized Portfolio among FTSE-20 Companies401

Problems405

References407

CHAPTER 17 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN FINANCE408

17.1 Introduction408

17.2 Investment Appraisal409

17.3 Investment Selection411

17.4 Business Analysis for a New Product414

17.5 Project Finance Decision418

17.6 Stock Portfolio Management421

17.7 Capacity Planning under Demand Uncertainty425

17.8 Portfolio Value at Risk(VAR)Calculation429

Problems431

References433

CHAPTER 18 HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT434

18.1 Introduction434

18.2 Allocating Personnel Workload435

18.3 Scheduling for Personnel Time438

18.4 Recruiting Personnel Using Performance Score Cards440

18.5 Recruiting Personnel Using Multiple Criteria443

18.6 Implementing a Fair Bonus System447

18.7 Selecting Training Program452

18.8 Building up Personnel Motivation457

Problems459

References461

CHAPTER 19 ORGANIZATIONAL REDESIGN462

19.1 Introduction462

19.2 Reorganization of Hospital Processes463

19.3 Evaluation of the Efficiency of Bank Stores466

19.4 Supply System Reengineering472

19.5 Toll Station Management475

19.6 Planning the Port Services479

19.7 Factory Production Planning483

19.8 Reengineering the Rank Xerox Supply Chain491

References498

CHAPTER 20 USING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN THE WORLD499

20.1 Introduction499

20.2 Designing Financial Products at Merrill Lynch501

20.3 Designing a Supply Chain at IBM508

20.4 Managing Blood in New York City513

20.5 Routing and Distribution Scheduling at Federal Express518

20.6 Human Resources Management at Emporiki Bank522

20.7 Fire Fighting in Canada526

20.8 Managing a Supply Chain in the Philippines530

20.9 Recycling Waste Lube Oils in Greece533

20.10 Yield Management at American Airlines538

References542